Domestic Secondary Aluminum Prices Held Steady Amid Wait-and-See Sentiment, Imported Spot Cargo Remained in Loss [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy on August 13

Futures: Overnight, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminum alloy futures contract opened at 20,210 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,270 yuan/mt and a low of 20,175 yuan/mt, before closing at 20,200 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt or 0.30% from the previous close. Trading volume stood at 895 lots, with open interest at 8,715 lots, primarily driven by bulls increasing their positions.    

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on August 12, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of 145 yuan/mt over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract (AD2511) at 10:15 a.m.

Aluminum Scrap: On Tuesday, the spot price of primary aluminum rose by 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot closing at 20,640 yuan/mt. The aluminum scrap market remained stable overall. Amid the traditional off-season, downstream scrap utilization enterprises are experiencing weak order releases, with purchases primarily driven by immediate needs. Baled UBC scrap aluminum was quoted at 15,450-15,950 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive), while shredded aluminum tense scrap (water price) was quoted at 17,000-17,500 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive). Baled UBC scrap aluminum rose by 100 yuan/mt MoM, while shredded aluminum tense scrap (water price) and automotive/motorcycle wheel hubs remained stable MoM.

Silicon Metal: (1) Price: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon metal was priced at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon metal at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt. The futures market was weak and rangebound, with the main 2511 contract opening at 9,050 yuan/mt and closing at 8,840 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous day. Silicon metal spot prices have been fluctuating rangebound recently, with downstream buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude and driving down prices, putting pressure on silicon metal spot prices. (2) Production: On the supply side, major northern producers continue to ramp up production, while operating rates in other regions remain largely unchanged. Weekly silicon metal production increased MoM.

Overseas Market: Overseas ADC12 quotes remained stable at 2,460-2,480 US dollars/mt, with imported spot prices hovering around 19,600 yuan/mt, maintaining an immediate loss for imports. Local ADC12 quotes in Thailand rose slightly to 82-84 Thai baht/kg (tax-exclusive).

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on August 13, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 31,611 mt, up 138 mt from the previous trading day and 393 mt from Wednesday (August 6) of last week.

Summary: On Tuesday, aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with secondary aluminum market quotes remaining stable and cautious. SMM ADC12 prices stabilized at 20,250 yuan/mt. In August, the secondary aluminum market continues to be constrained by tight aluminum scrap supply, with enterprises facing sustained cost pressure, supporting ADC12 prices. However, the lack of significant improvement in consumption will limit price increases, with secondary aluminum alloy prices expected to fluctuate rangebound in the early month. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the progress of end-use demand recovery and the improvement of aluminum scrap supply.

[Data Source Statement: Data other than publicly available information are derived from public information, market exchanges, and processed by SMM based on its internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]